A European city has been identified by a former CIA operative as a potential target for a “non-traditional” nuclear weapon. In the midst of increasing global tensions, including the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, tensions between China and Taiwan, and the recent capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the US, the year 2026 is seen as a time of growing danger.
Andrew Bustamante, a former CIA intelligence officer with experience in the United States Air Force and nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) operations, is well-equipped to provide insights into these escalating tensions. As the host of the EverydaySpy podcast, Andrew maintains a consistent stance on the matter, emphasizing the need for nations to stay vigilant and ready to respond to potential conventional nuclear attacks.
While Andrew deems the likelihood of a nuclear-tipped ICBM attack in 2026 as highly improbable, he warns of a more concerning prospect – a covert attack involving a “non-traditional nuclear explosion.” He points out the potential threat of a dirty bomb or a smuggled nuclear warhead, which could catch authorities off guard and be harder to counteract.
Andrew highlights the risk of a nuclear explosion in a European city like Kyiv, possibly delivered through unconventional means such as a briefcase nuke transported from Belarus, rather than a direct missile strike. He stresses that such an incident would lead to chaos and a delayed response, diminishing the effectiveness of any countermeasures.
Describing the concept of a ‘dirty bomb’ and the Oreshnik, an intermediate-range hypersonic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, Andrew emphasizes that using such weapons for nuclear strikes would not be in the best interests of countries like Russia. He underscores the importance of avoiding high-paced operations that could escalate conflicts, advocating for strategic actions that promote de-escalation instead.
In a sobering prediction, Andrew estimates a 25% likelihood of a nuclear device detonation, which may not unfold in the conventional manner people expect. He envisions scenarios like a shoulder-launched nuclear missile in the South China Sea causing an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) to disable military or naval assets, disrupting existing policies and responses related to nuclear capabilities.
