The Labour party has surged ahead of Reform in recent polls, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment compared to the past year. According to a recent poll by More In Common, Labour is now leading Reform by four percentage points, with 28% support compared to 24%.
In a separate survey conducted by Survation, Labour, under the leadership of Andy Burnham, has also taken the lead over Nigel Farage’s party, with 26% support against Reform’s 24%. Another poll later in the week showed Labour maintaining a five-point lead, with 28% support compared to Reform’s 23%.
Additionally, Labour secured victory in the Greater Manchester Mayoralty election, with Bev Craig winning by a significant margin of 309,525 votes against Reform’s Sian Astley, who received 157,178 votes. This win adds to Reform’s consecutive losses in by-elections and mayoral races.
The recent boost for Labour, known as the “Burnham bounce,” coincides with a positive trend for the Tories, who are regaining support from voters who had previously shifted to Reform. Meanwhile, the Green Party, which aimed to replace Labour not long ago, has seen a dramatic decline to just 8% support, as reported by More In Common.
The current political landscape raises questions about the resilience of the traditional two-party system and the future of Reform. Government insiders attribute the turnaround to a series of policy initiatives by the new Prime Minister, including reductions in energy bills, support for pubs, and travel cost caps.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice noted the “Burnham bounce” phenomenon and the decline in support for Reform UK, with the party’s ratings stagnating around 24%. The overall outlook suggests a strengthening of positions for the major parties, Labour and the Conservatives, although the dynamics of the electoral system add complexity to the situation.
Analysts emphasize that Labour must do more to sustain its lead in the polls, cautioning that the narrow margins could be influenced by factors such as challenges faced by Farage and changing public perceptions. The success of Burnham’s leadership will be judged on concrete progress in addressing issues like cost of living, NHS services, and long-term policy outcomes.
The Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, is also experiencing a resurgence, benefiting from the decline in support for Reform. The Tory source expressed confidence in the party’s direction and highlighted the challenges faced by Reform and Farage amid ongoing controversies and defections.
Overall, while the recent shifts in political support reflect a positive trend for Labour and the Conservatives, the future trajectory of Reform remains uncertain, with questions raised about its sustainability in the political landscape.
