Labour faced a significant defeat in its traditional Welsh strongholds as it slipped to third place in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election. Analysts noted that the outcome signaled serious challenges for the party leading up to the pivotal Welsh Parliament elections in May 2026.
Plaid Cymru secured a decisive victory in Caerphilly, clinching a lead of 3,848 votes and a notable swing of nearly 27% from the Labour party. The voter turnout exceeded 50%, with Plaid commanding 47% of the votes, surpassing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at 36%.
Labour, which had maintained the Caerphilly seat since its inception in 1999, found itself trailing in a distant third place with a meager 11% share. The Conservative candidate received only 690 votes, while the Green Party and Liberal Democrats garnered 516 and 497 votes respectively. Reform UK, despite a vigorous campaign effort, failed to secure the Welsh seat.
Following the defeat, First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged the challenging circumstances of the by-election and thanked Labour’s candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, for his service. She congratulated Lindsey Whittle on his victory and recognized the community’s call for faster progress in improving their lives. Welsh Labour pledged to learn from the outcome and return stronger.
Welsh Labour MP and Minister for Europe, Nick Thomas-Symonds, acknowledged the tough road ahead for the party in the upcoming Senedd elections after losing to Plaid. He emphasized the need to accelerate the pace of change based on feedback received during the campaign.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice highlighted Plaid’s strengthened position to potentially appoint Wales’s next First Minister. He noted Reform’s disappointment with the results, citing the party’s consistent but insufficient national polling performance.
Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, praised the voters of Caerphilly for choosing hope and progress, endorsing the party’s vision for a positive future. He emphasized Plaid as the viable alternative to the current political landscape, positioning the party as the frontrunner for new leadership in Wales.
