Ryanair’s recent decision to discontinue certain routes in Spain and reduce flight frequencies on others could result in a surge in ticket prices, as per a report.
The budget airline has confirmed the closure of its base in Santiago de Compostela and the suspension of flights from Vigo and Tenerife North. These cutbacks are a response to Spain’s airport operator Aena announcing a 6.5% hike in passenger fees by 2026.
Concurrently, Ryanair will also maintain the closure of bases in Valladolid and Jerez while scaling down operations in Asturias, Santander, Zaragoza, and the Canary Islands this winter.
These adjustments are part of Ryanair’s plan to reduce capacity by 41% in Spanish regions and by 10% in the Canary Islands during the winter season. CEO Eddie Wilson warned of the negative impact on investment, connectivity, tourism, and employment in regional Spain due to many routes becoming economically unfeasible.
While much attention has been on the dispute with Aena, the primary concern for travelers is the potential increase in ticket prices and when to book alternative flights.
According to analysis by Dot Dot Loans, when airlines like Ryanair reduce capacity, fares on affected routes tend to rise by 20-30% within four to six weeks of the announcement due to a decrease in supply.
Past instances, such as Ryanair’s 2024 cuts in Germany following tax hikes, saw immediate fare increases of 10-20% on affected routes as available seats diminished. Although competitors like easyJet or Vueling may absorb some demand, initial scarcity often leads to temporary price spikes before stabilizing.
The analysis indicates that ticket prices on affected routes could rise from the current £55-£60 to £80-£85 by October for January flights. Waiting to book flights could potentially add £50-£200 per ticket for a family of four, further straining holiday budgets already affected by inflation.
Passengers are advised to secure alternative flights early to avoid price spikes, especially on popular travel dates like Christmas and New Year’s. Flexibility in travel plans could lead to deals as competitors might offer promotions to capture Ryanair’s market share, potentially lowering fares by 10-15% in the short term.
Ultimately, whether to book now or wait depends on individual risk tolerance, especially for fixed travel dates versus adaptability to potential fare fluctuations.
