After Andy Burnham expressed interest in running for the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a dilemma with limited favorable options.
Allowing Burnham to enter the race posed the risk of sparking speculation about a potential leadership challenge, removing a barrier preventing him from doing so as only MPs are eligible for the leadership position.
Moreover, the thought of engaging in an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amid Labour’s upcoming challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May could spell trouble for Starmer. Poor outcomes in these contests might create a precarious situation for Starmer, with Burnham and other contenders eyeing the top leadership role ready to seize the opportunity.
Alternatively, the other course of action, as taken by the Prime Minister, was to prevent Burnham from running. This decision was justified by citing the financial burden on taxpayers of conducting a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the crucial May elections. While this move eliminated the immediate threat, its long-term repercussions could be severe.
Following the announcement, numerous MPs expressed strong disapproval, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a setup. Burnham risks becoming a symbol of dissent for dissatisfied backbenchers who view the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already exhibited defiance by pressuring the Government into several policy reversals. Antagonizing them further will undoubtedly complicate Starmer’s leadership.
A government minister, prior to the decision, hinted that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, suggesting that Starmer may appear weakened by blocking him.
Furthermore, No10 has actively opposed Wes Streeting, perceived as a potential leadership contender, and now barred Burnham’s return to Westminster. Opinions on whether these actions reflect strength or vulnerability vary, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the PM argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal discord that the public is growing weary of. However, in reality, this may not be the case. Until Starmer manages to boost Labour’s diminishing poll ratings, concerns about his future are likely to persist.
While Burnham has detractors who claim he prioritizes his personal ambitions over the constituents of Greater Manchester who elected him less than two years ago, he remains a popular figure. His reputation extends beyond Westminster, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour comfortably secured Gorton in 2024, the party faces a challenge in retaining it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, and the Greens attract left-wing voters. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome.
The stakes are high for Labour in the upcoming by-election, with potential consequences if they fail to secure a victory.
