The United Nations has issued a warning about the imminent return of El Niño, which is expected to significantly raise temperatures globally in the upcoming weeks. El Niño is a potent natural weather phenomenon that typically leads to higher temperatures and decreased rainfall. According to The World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% likelihood of El Niño occurring before September, with a 90% chance of it persisting until November.
Various national weather agencies have forecasted that the upcoming El Niño could be one of the most intense events on record, potentially surpassing previous “super” El Niños. While the impact of El Niño in the UK tends to be less pronounced, it can still result in more extreme weather conditions, with colder winters and hotter summers. The current heatwave could just be the beginning of what is to come.
Professor Bill McGuire, an expert in geophysical and climate hazards, anticipates that El Niño could influence summer temperatures, possibly as early as this year but more likely in the following year, leading to temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres emphasizes the urgency of treating the threat of El Niño as a critical climate warning, highlighting the potential for devastating impacts that can spread rapidly across borders.
The previous El Niño event in 2023-24 was among the strongest on record and contributed to a remarkably hot summer globally. Despite the extreme heatwave experienced in 2024, scientists are predicting that the upcoming El Niño could be even more powerful. Prof Adam Scaife from the UK Met Office expressed high confidence in the occurrence of a significant El Niño event, possibly breaking records.
If El Niño materializes this year, it could elevate the likelihood of 2027 setting new record-breaking temperatures, as cautioned by UN scientists. The urgency for climate action is underscored, emphasizing the need to transition away from fossil fuels, accelerate renewable energy adoption, protect vulnerable populations, and establish advanced early warning systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
