Keir Starmer has concluded his visit to the Far East, securing important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, there were no significant issues during the crucial Beijing trip. However, the focus in Downing Street now shifts to domestic matters, specifically the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
Scheduled for February 26, the by-election in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton follows Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body is viewed as a risky move that could potentially backfire, according to some MPs.
Concerns have been raised that losing the by-election could be interpreted as sacrificing a seat to keep Andy Burnham out, which might not bode well for Keir Starmer’s leadership. On the other hand, there is optimism within the Labour camp that victory is achievable. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s jury trial changes, remains hopeful, citing positive reports from Lucy Powell on the ground.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, with Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party as significant contenders. The outcome may hinge on tactical voting and the dynamics of the constituency, which has seen shifts in traditional voting patterns.
Luke Tryl, a fellow polling expert, emphasized that the by-election is a three-way race between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with Nigel Farage’s Reform party dominating the narrative. Tactical voting could play a crucial role in determining the outcome, especially in a polarized political landscape.
Voters, particularly those leaning towards left-leaning parties, face a dilemma on which party to support to counter Reform’s influence. The strategic choice between Labour and the Greens remains uncertain, reflecting the strategic complexities at play in the upcoming by-election.
