Britain is projected to experience a slower population growth in the upcoming years due to decreased migration levels, leading to a peak in the mid-2050s followed by a decline. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts an increase of 1.7 million people in the population between 2024 and 2034, reaching a total of 71.0 million. This is a significant decrease from previous estimates, which anticipated a rise of 3.0 million during the same period.
The revised projections reflect the recent decline in net migration and lower fertility rates. The UK population is expected to continue growing at a slower pace throughout the 2030s and 2040s, peaking at 72.5 million in 2054 before decreasing to 71.4 million by 2074. Earlier assumptions suggested continuous growth until 2096, with net migration being the primary contributor to population increase in the coming decades.
James Robards, head of household and population projections at the ONS, emphasized that the latest projections indicate a slower population growth trajectory primarily due to reduced migration and fertility assumptions. These projections are based on current trends and historical data, subject to revision as trends evolve.
Net migration to the UK witnessed a significant drop, with estimates showing a 69% decrease to 204,000 in the year leading up to June 2025. Over the next decade, net migration is expected to add 2.2 million to the population, while natural change will result in more deaths than births, leading to an overall growth projection of 1.7 million.
The ONS projects varying peak population times across the UK nations, with England expected to reach 62.1 million in 2056, compared to earlier peaks in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The projected total growth in the UK population between 2024 and 2049 is estimated at 3.1 million, representing a 4.5% increase, showcasing a slowdown compared to previous years.
The demographic shift will see an increase in the number of pensioners by 2034, reaching 14.2 million and comprising 20.0% of the population. In contrast, the number of children under 16 is expected to decrease, representing 15.5% of the total population. By 2054, when the population is projected to peak, pensioners are anticipated to make up 22.0% of the population.
Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, highlighted the challenges posed by the demographic changes, noting the strain on the pension system with fewer workers supporting a growing retiree population. Stuart McDonald from LCP emphasized the need for improved productivity and prevention strategies in the healthcare sector to manage the increasing healthcare needs associated with an aging population and declining birth rates.
