The Transport Secretary has disclosed that the embattled HS2 rail project may face a delay of up to 17 years before completion. Heidi Alexander revealed that the projected cost for finalizing the venture now ranges between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion. Commencing services might not occur until 2039, with the entire project potentially wrapping up by 2043. The speed of HS2 trains is set to be reduced to 320km/h to optimize cost-efficiency and construction timelines.
Addressing the Commons, Alexander outlined the revised timeline, stating, “First services are anticipated to operate from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street between May 2036 and October 2039. Additionally, the full HS2 scheme from Euston to Handsacre junction is now expected to be completed between May 2040 and December 2043.” Originally slated for a 2026 launch, the initial phase of the railway has faced setbacks.
The original plan for High Speed 2 (HS2) included trains running at 360km/h, aiming to be the fastest conventional high-speed trains globally. Alexander criticized the former administration’s fixation on achieving record speeds as an unnecessary endeavor, given the UK’s size in comparison to countries like China. Lowering the train speeds to 320km/h aligns HS2 with other high-speed rail models such as HS1, Japan’s bullet trains, and France’s TGV network, while still surpassing the UK’s typical high-speed train speeds of up to 200km/h.
The recent update by Alexander coincided with a comprehensive review of HS2 deficiencies conducted by Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the former National Security Advisor. The review highlighted the detrimental impact of shifting objectives and political priorities over time, as well as the excessive focus on achieving peak speeds. Alexander emphasized the need for a practical approach to rail infrastructure, prioritizing reliability and efficiency over extravagant speed targets.
Ruth Cadbury, chair of the transport select committee, emphasized the importance of setting realistic and achievable target dates for the project. She echoed the sentiment that striving to be the fastest high-speed rail globally was overly ambitious and costly, especially in a country as compact as the UK. Lovegrove’s report aims to extract valuable lessons not only for HS2 but also for future infrastructure endeavors.
Initially estimated to cost £32.7 billion in 2011, the construction of the high-speed line from London to Birmingham, along with the shelved extensions to Leeds and Manchester, has witnessed a significant budget escalation. Despite considerations of scrapping the project, it was found that abandoning HS2 would incur costs equivalent to or exceeding the expenses of completing it, which has already incurred an estimated £40 billion in expenditures.
HS2 Ltd’s Mark Wild cautioned against the unprecedented challenge of canceling a project of HS2’s scale, highlighting the complexities involved in reversing the construction process. The need for thorough land remediation and asset removal, potentially requiring reconstruction costs comparable to the original development, adds another layer of complexity to the project’s future trajectory.
