The Makerfield constituency appears to be a prime target for the Reform party in an upcoming by-election. Labour has historically held the seat since 1983, but their majority significantly decreased in the 2019 general election, standing at slightly over 5,000 votes, with Reform UK in second place, experiencing an 18.7% increase in vote share.
Reform UK also achieved success in recent council elections in the area. Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, mentioned that Makerfield is well-suited for Reform to perform strongly, especially considering that around two-thirds of the region voted to leave the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
However, the dynamics shifted when Andy Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester Mayor and a prominent figure in the Labour party, announced his candidacy for the by-election. Tryl indicated that Burnham’s presence could influence the outcome, given that voters perceive him as an outsider to the traditional Westminster system, potentially boosting him by 20 points in the polls.
The by-election result holds significant implications for Burnham’s political future. A loss could derail his aspirations of becoming Prime Minister, while a win would demonstrate his ability to surpass expectations and challenge right-wing contenders like Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
On the other hand, Reform party leader faces substantial pressure to secure a victory in Makerfield and prove his capability to defeat Burnham, often referred to as the ‘King of the North.’ The party selected local plumber Robert Kenyon as its candidate, emphasizing the contest as a David versus Goliath battle.
Reform’s strategy includes portraying Burnham as an outsider, with recent campaign material insinuating that his decisions are self-serving. Yet, this narrative seems ironic considering the party leader’s unsuccessful bids in multiple constituencies over the years.
Despite Reform’s efforts, Burnham’s strong local connections and community engagement may sway the electorate in his favor. Observers note that people recognize Burnham as a ‘local lad,’ with many expressing personal connections to him, as evidenced by the warm reception he receives while interacting with residents in Makerfield.
