A recent analysis reveals that the Saskatchewan government’s decision to revamp its coal-fired power plants could incur costs of up to $46.4 billion in the next two decades. This amount surpasses the previously estimated $26 billion over 25 years as per leaked internal documents from SaskPower.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to determine the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy to transition from coal-fired power plants to nuclear power and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research indicates that this plan will be pricier and more environmentally harmful compared to retiring the coal plants and integrating a mix of natural gas and renewable energy systems, which was the original provincial plan before the reversal in early 2025.
Dolter’s assessment, based on leaked SaskPower documents, data submitted to the province’s rate review panel, and some assumptions due to the lack of shared internal government analysis, highlights significant cost savings when factoring in carbon pricing. Without carbon pricing for heavy emitters, the projected expense of continuing with coal amounts to $30.2 billion over the next 20 years.
Furthermore, the cumulative cost escalates to $46.4 billion when considering carbon pricing, significantly lower than the initial estimate. Dolter emphasized the substantial financial benefits of alternative energy sources and reduced emissions, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and positive impact on individuals.
Despite the clear financial implications of the current direction, Dolter refrained from speculating on the government’s decision-making process. When asked for a response to Dolter’s analysis, the provincial government reiterated its focus on providing reliable and affordable electricity to support Saskatchewan’s growth. Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison emphasized the province’s commitment to utilizing a variety of energy resources, including nuclear power, for future energy needs.
The article underlines the potential financial and legal risks associated with Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal clean electricity regulations and carbon pricing policies. Dolter cautioned that the province could face legal challenges if it continues to operate coal plants in violation of federal regulations, potentially resulting in significant financial losses.
The City of Estevan, heavily reliant on natural resources like coal, anticipates a more stable economic future with the refurbishment of coal plants and transition to nuclear power. Mayor Tony Sernick expressed optimism for the city’s development and growth following the government’s decision.
Saskatchewan’s departure from federal regulations on coal-fired power plants and carbon pricing regulations poses legal uncertainties and financial risks for the province. Dolter highlighted the possibility of substantial financial losses if legal challenges compel the shutdown of refurbished coal plants after significant investment.
