A recent US intelligence assessment, conducted just before the US and Israel initiated a conflict with Iran, has indicated that any American military action is unlikely to lead to a change in the Iranian government, according to two undisclosed sources familiar with the report.
The National Intelligence Council’s analysis in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a prolonged military campaign would probably result in a new leadership emerging in Iran, even if the current regime were to be removed, as per the anonymous sources.
This assessment contradicts the administration’s assertion that its objectives in Iran could be swiftly achieved, possibly within a few weeks.
While the administration claims not to seek regime change in Iran, numerous Iranian leadership figures have been targeted in strikes, and President Donald Trump has implied a desire for leadership change. The evaluation found no unified opposition ready to take control if the current leadership were eliminated.
In the event of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s demise, the report suggests Iran’s establishment would strive to maintain power continuity. Following this evaluation, Iran’s senior clerics appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader after his father’s death in the initial conflict strike. Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to hold even more extreme views than his father, signaling Iran’s defiance and reluctance to back down easily.
Various justifications have been offered by Trump and senior officials for the strikes initiated on February 28, citing reasons such as hindering Iran’s nuclear program or preventing an Iranian missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claims the war is not about regime change, Trump has hinted at his desire for such a change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the assessment, redirecting inquiries to the White House. Trump has historically questioned the US intelligence community, alleging political bias or conspiracy, and Richard Goldberg, a former NSC director, highlighted past intelligence community misjudgments that have fueled doubts.
Recent intelligence failures, including the rapid fall of the Afghan government to the Taliban in 2021 and inaccurate predictions regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have added to skepticism towards intelligence assessments. Goldberg likened intelligence assessments to opinion pieces from the intelligence community.
